1/16/2020 Blackjack When To Split 10s
Facts about casinos. They cost the scammers money, so as they would still be 3150 quid up on you if they pay you, purely as a form of defence against the chargeback which they could then appeal on the grounds they completed their side of the deal.
One time I was doing what u did and split my 10's vs dealer 7. Got two 19's and dealer flips hard 17. Everyone at the table thought I was a counting God cuz I was up a few hundo asking me what my strategy was to split there. I said if it was higher than 7 I probably wouldn't have split.
Among my recent emails from players, I have several on the topic of splitting tens. One player mentioned that he seems to win more often than not when splitting tens against a dealer 5 or 6, so he was wondering if the play could be justified. Actually, his basic assertion is correct. You will win more often than not when splitting tens in those situations. But, winning more than 50% of the time is only part of the story.
When the dealer has a 5 or 6 up, he will bust more than 40% of the time. That’s why basic strategy against those dealer upcards becomes quite a bit more aggressive. You should double 9, 10, and 11. Among soft totals, you should double A2 through A7. So, if you are dealt a pat 20, why not split the pair and get more money on the table while the dealer is weak?
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Like all of basic strategy, this decision comes down to which action makes you the most money in the long run. Your single hand of a pat 20 is worth more than double what a single hand starting with a ten is worth.
Splitting Tens costs you money.
Assume we are playing a 6 deck, H17 game and we are dealt a pair of 10s against a dealer 6. Our initial bet is $10.
If we stand with 20, we’ll win our $10 bet 78% of the time. We’ll push with a dealer 20 about 11% of the time, and lose to a dealer 21 another 11% of the time. On average, we’ll win $6.77 by standing.
If we instead split the tens (only once) and put a $10 bet on each hand, what happens? On average, each of these hands is still a winner, but the average win on each hand is only $2.78. Our total expected win on both hands combined is just $5.56, which is more than $1 less than the value if we had just stood on the 20. Despite having twice as much money bet in a favorable situation, we are now expected to win less overall.
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If it’s bad to split tens just once, it is of course worse to resplit them. If your strategy is to split tens and resplit up to the usual three times allowed, your total bet will be either $20, $30 or $40. Over all of these possibilities, your expected profit drops further yet to a grand total of only $4.51, more than $2 less than the value of your initial single $10 bet on a pat 20.
What about card counters?
Despite the risk of confusing basic strategy players, I can’t talk about splitting tens without addressing what happens if you count cards. Because card counters have extra information about the remaining cards to be dealt, they are able to identify occasions when splitting tens does become the mathematically correct play. In our example game, the Hi-Lo index number for splitting tens against a dealer 6 is +4. (For indexes for other specific games, see our Advanced Blackjack Strategy cards.) When the true count is at +4 or higher, the value of multiple hands surpasses the value of the pat 20.
Having said that, even if the true count indicates that the play is warranted it may still be a bad idea to split tens. Because the act of splitting tens draws so much attention, most card counters choose to ignore the index for splitting tens, and just keep the pat 20 regardless of the count. In some casinos, the dealer is required to announce to the pit when a player splits tens. Pit bosses know that only two kinds of players split tens… Those that don’t know any better, and those that know full-well what they are doing. If you are a card counter, you had better be sure the pit thinks you are completely harmless before you split tens. If they already view you with any suspicion, this move will confirm it.
In any case, I want to be perfectly clear about one point…
Basic strategy players shouldn’t split tens. Period.
Just don’t do it. It may seem fun, and it may be exciting. But splitting tens is just giving the casino extra money. They don’t need any extra. Stand with your 20.
To find the hand values for this article, I used MGP’s free Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer software for Windows, available at this site. If you want to explore alternative strategies and research the expected value, it is a powerful tool.
10 members have voted
BlackjackGuy123
There are definitely situations where I will split tens. It's not really as big a heat trigger as you might think. Chances are if this play gets you backed off they were already most of the way there already. The thing is that 95% of the time nobody is really paying attention anyway. Surveillance is mostly monitoring payouts and looking for dealer errors. Card counters are so paranoid but usually they are a very small fish in a very big pond and if you don't give away any obvious tells you will slip through the cracks. The most important thing is to keep your mouth shut. Anyway, I always split tens but I do so at a higher index. I use a risk averse index. the thing is at TC +7 and higher there is simply too much gain to abstain from splitting. You are talking about EV that is 20% higher and of course like anything the higher you go in the true count the more value you gain from making the play. So what I do is split tens (and double soft twenty), vs 4, 5 and 6 at TC +7 or higher. And resplit as well of course. It also depends on how aggressively you are betting. If you were playing at a small joint with a low table max and your max bet in this location left you with a 500+ max bet bankroll then you would want to start splitting right at the EV maximizing index or before +7 anyway. But if you were betting full kelly it would be wiser to wait a few TCs before splitting tens or making a close double like 9 v 7.
fearlessdragon
What about resplitting 10s and doubling after splitting if you got an Ace for your split 10? will you do it? or it receives attention because i have seen dealers calling for pit boss when anyone splits 10s.
Blackjack When To Split 10s Game
beachbumbabs I saw an extreme video on a guy doing this last year..was it linked from here? He was playing 3 hands for a good amount (black chip or higher) and the dealer had a 6 and he split. Might have been playing 20 hands by the time the dealer took a hit. I won't spoil it by saying whether he won or lost if you haven't seen it, but the count must have been huge. I'll see if I can find it.Administrator Edit: this is it. The felt says 'Abu Dhabi : the place to win'.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MaxPen
He was hitting 12's and 13's against the 6...
beachbumbabs
Administrator
He was hitting 12's and 13's against the 6...
Yeah, I saw that. Lost one of those towards the beginning. The narrative on YouTube says there were 17 hands.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Minty
That excitement with the 'OTRA VEZ PAPAAAA!' was priceless.
'Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday.' -Chip Reese
BlackjackGuy123
The dealer isn't really calling for pit boss. When they call out a strange play it is so you can't argue that you chose that option because the dealer shouted it out for everyone to hear moments ago. Blackjack losers like to take shots. There is an index for doubling down on a soft 21 but it's pretty high.
fearlessdragon
Ok. Thanks for the reply. I am still learning a lot about card counting, reading a lot of online resources. A free online book by norman wattenberger says REKO technique works better than hi lo and its more easier. Any one tried that and had more success?
Romes
Thanks for this post from:
Ok. Thanks for the reply. I am still learning a lot about card counting, reading a lot of online resources. A free online book by norman wattenberger says REKO technique works better than hi lo and its more easier. Any one tried that and had more success?
Blackjack When To Split 10s VideoThere are many metrics with which to calculate the performance of a card counting system.. Playing Efficiency (PE), Betting Efficiency (BE), and Insurance Correlation (IC) are a few. After that you have raw EV via simulations.. In the end what some people do with statistics is they use whichever one of those measuring correlations best fits their point and case. Thus, I could make a case for one system being better than another using PE, but then turn around and make the opposite statement by measuring using BE. So long as you're using a 'main stream' count and not something like A-5 or speed count, the count you make the least amount of mistakes with is the right count for you. Often times the higher level counts that are 'slightly better' in EV (or any one particular category above) comes with some complexity that causes more mistakes and actually ends up COSTING the counter money because they don't play as perfectly as their simulation does. There really is no right answer when it comes to a counting system. I have students that would tell you from experience REKO is not easier than Hi/Low. Then again I'm sure you could find others that say it is.. it's all subjective to YOUR training and how YOU interact with the counting system.Blackjack Split AcesHowever, one thing I can say at the end of the day.. you'll have a lot more trouble finding good information/help with other systems than Hi/Low. Not saying it can't be done, but since that's what the massive bulk of card counters use that's what everyone is best educated on and best suited to help one another with. Try looking up a problem you're having in regards to REKO then Hi/Low. You'll find a lot more information in regards to Hi/Low that will help you understand and overcome your problem. I think there's definitely a time and knowledge factor that goes unaccounted for there as well. Blackjack When To Split Tens*Full Disclaimer: I support counters using Hi/Low. That doesn't mean it's the best because as said above you can prove every single system is the best with some form of measurement or another. From my experience it's the best for a lot of reasons.. I talk about them in the articles I wrote and linked you to in another thread =). Split 10s In Blackjack
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
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